Instrumental Experiment: The Double Down

Epistemic status: Shower thoughts, but also – Actually trying things.


There are times in life where you will have made a breakthrough.  You will have had a success and you will think, “great, time for a holiday”, I should quit while I am ahead.  This is not one of those times.  There are times when you will have started making some mistakes, it might be time to pack it in for the evening and cut your losses.  This is not one of those times.

This is a time to double down.  You just made $10k?  Time to double it.  Make it $20k.  The best place for action is right here.  And the best time to grab the market by surprise is right now.  Don’t take a break.  Take more actions.

Every piece of advice lands on a spectrum.  Roughly speaking, a spectrum of “very applicable” to “the opposite of the right thing to do”.  This piece of advice falls somewhere on that line.  And you know who knows where exactly this advice lands?  Future you.  Hindsight is 20/20.  If, like me – you don’t have a time machine.  And you still want to learn these lessons of where to apply this advice – the one way to learn is to try it.  Run experiments.  Learn what works through trial and error.  The only warning I suggest is – don’t take too much risk in making mistakes.

Committing to this advice is to say, “I take the information I have at hand, and I make this choice willingly, based on what I know – this is probably the right decision”.  And who could fault you on that?  I couldn’t.

good luck.


Counterpart: Instrumental experiment: Quit while you are ahead

Counterpart: Instrumental experiment: Cut your losses

Meta: 3 short posts that go together.  But which advice do you follow?

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